DC United vs Columbus Crew — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
DC United
36%
result
Draw
27%
Columbus Crew
37%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a DC United win 35.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Columbus Crew win. Expected goals 1.51–1.64 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.1%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.4%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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DC United
| 22 Feb | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 0–0 | D |
Columbus Crew
| 22 Feb | A | vs Portland Timbers | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | DC United (Home · 16 matches) | Columbus Crew (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 68.8% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use DC United's home record; away stats use Columbus Crew's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.