DC United vs Charlotte — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 19.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
DC United
33%
Draw
26%
Charlotte
41%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Charlotte win 41.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Charlotte win. Expected goals 1.47–1.67 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (7.9%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
DC United
| 22 Feb | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 0–0 | D |
Charlotte
| 21 Feb | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 6–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | DC United (Home · 16 matches) | Charlotte (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 68.8% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.62 |
Home stats use DC United's home record; away stats use Charlotte's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.