Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC — MLS forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Columbus Crew
61%
Draw
20%
Toronto FC
18%
Expected goals
2.16–1.10
Columbus Crew · Toronto FC
Columbus Crew win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.9%), 1–1 (9.3%), 2–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Columbus Crew score at least twice in 64%; Toronto FC in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Toronto FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Columbus Crew goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 22% | 18% |
| Market reference | 61% | 20% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 20% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 1.57 |
| Draw | 4.57 |
| Toronto FC | 4.99 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Columbus Crew
| 22 Feb | A | vs Portland Timbers | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–2 | L |
Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 21 Mar 26 | Toronto FCvsColumbus Crew | 2 – 1 |
Columbus Crew: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Columbus Crew (Home · 15 matches) | Toronto FC (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 26.7% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Columbus Crew's home record; away stats use Toronto FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.