Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 28 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.7 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Columbus Crew
34%
result
Draw
23%
Inter Miami
43%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Columbus Crew win 34.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Inter Miami win. Expected goals 1.50–1.69 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.3%), 1–2 (9.2%), 2–1 (8.0%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Columbus Crew
| 22 Feb | A | vs Portland Timbers | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–2 | L |
Inter Miami
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Mar | A | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Columbus Crew (Home · 17 matches) | Inter Miami (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 3.65 |
Home stats use Columbus Crew's home record; away stats use Inter Miami's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.