Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Columbus Crew
35%
Draw
23%
Inter Miami
42%
Expected goals
1.50–1.70
Columbus Crew · Inter Miami
Inter Miami win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.6%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Columbus Crew score at least twice in 44%; Inter Miami in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Inter Miami goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Columbus Crew goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| Market reference | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 23% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 2.75 |
| Draw | 4.01 |
| Inter Miami | 2.29 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Columbus Crew
| 22 Feb | A | vs Portland Timbers | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–2 | L |
Inter Miami
| 22 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Mar | A | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Mar | A | vs New York City | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 26 | Inter MiamivsColumbus Crew | 2 – 2 |
Columbus Crew: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Columbus Crew (Home · 13 matches) | Inter Miami (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 53.8% | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.8% | 69.2% |
| Clean sheet | 30.8% | 23.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.46 | 3.85 |
Home stats use Columbus Crew's home record; away stats use Inter Miami's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.