Both sides arrive in poor form, with Columbus having lost three of their last five at home and Atlanta managing just one win in their last five on the road. Sitting 26th and 28th respectively, this is a meeting of two struggling sides with little to separate them in the table, which makes the head-to-head record — a single Columbus win — almost irrelevant as a sample size.

The scoring data tells a clear story about what kind of game to expect. Columbus are averaging just 1.2 goals per home game while Atlanta are managing only 0.5 on the road, and Atlanta have kept a clean sheet in none of their away fixtures. Even so, BTTS has landed in just 25% of Atlanta's away games against a league average of 60%, and combined Over 2.5 numbers are well below the MLS norm for both sides.

This looks like a low-scoring, tight affair — the kind of game where both defenses are poor enough to concede but neither attack is dynamic enough to punish consistently. The under is the natural lean here, and the visitors are fragile enough away from home that Columbus, despite their own struggles, may edge it.