Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — MLS forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Colorado Rapids
30%
Draw
25%
Vancouver Whitecaps
45%
Expected goals
1.37–1.66
Colorado Rapids · Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 1–2 (9.7%), 0–1 (7.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Vancouver Whitecaps win is 1–2 (9.7%).
Colorado Rapids score at least twice in 40%; Vancouver Whitecaps in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Vancouver Whitecaps goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Colorado Rapids goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market reference | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 3.12 |
| Draw | 3.76 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 2.16 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Colorado Rapids
| 23 Feb | A | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs Portland Timbers | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs New York City | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 4–1 | W |
Vancouver Whitecaps
| 22 Feb | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 6–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | Vancouver WhitecapsvsColorado Rapids | 3 – 1 |
Colorado Rapids: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Colorado Rapids (Home · 15 matches) | Vancouver Whitecaps (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 46.7% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 53.3% |
| Clean sheet | 46.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.87 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Colorado Rapids's home record; away stats use Vancouver Whitecaps's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.