Colorado Rapids head into this one in inconsistent form, picking up just one win from their last five, but their home record this season tells a more interesting story. They have been involved in high-scoring games at home, with BTTS landing in 75% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 75% of them too, both well above the league average. An average of 3.5 goals scored per home game is a striking figure, even accounting for a leaky defense conceding 1.5 per game.

St. Louis City arrive as the weaker side on paper, sitting bottom of the table and struggling on the road. Their away matches have produced over 2.5 goals in just 20% of games, the opposite end of the spectrum from their hosts, and they have kept no clean sheets away from home all season while averaging only 0.6 goals scored.

The data suggests this could be a lopsided affair. St. Louis look badly out of form and outmatched here, and the visitors appear undervalued only in how bad things could get for them.