Chicago Fire vs New York City — MLS forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Chicago Fire
49%
Draw
25%
New York City
26%
Expected goals
1.71–1.21
Chicago Fire · New York City
Chicago Fire win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Chicago Fire win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Chicago Fire score at least twice in 51%; New York City in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
New York City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Chicago Fire goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 25% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 1.96 |
| Draw | 3.81 |
| New York City | 3.56 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 07 Oct · 04:07 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Jul 26 | New York CityvsChicago Fire | 3 – 1 |
Chicago Fire: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Chicago Fire (Home · 12 matches) | New York City (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 38.5% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 15.4% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.31 |
Home stats use Chicago Fire's home record; away stats use New York City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.