Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 37.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Chicago Fire
52%
top pick
Draw
23%
New England Revolution
25%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a New England Revolution win 25.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Chicago Fire win. Expected goals 2.01–1.47 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.3%), 1–1 (9.8%), 2–2 (6.8%). It finished 1–2.
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Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
New England Revolution
| 22 Feb | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–4 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 6–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Apr | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Chicago Fire (Home · 16 matches) | New England Revolution (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 81.2% | 81.2% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.19 | 3.12 |
Home stats use Chicago Fire's home record; away stats use New England Revolution's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.