Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 21.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Chicago Fire
46%
top pick
Draw
22%
result
Inter Miami
32%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 22.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Chicago Fire win. Expected goals 1.86–1.64 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.1%), 1–1 (9.3%), 1–2 (6.6%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Inter Miami
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Mar | A | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Chicago Fire (Home · 16 matches) | Inter Miami (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 81.2% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.19 | 3.65 |
Home stats use Chicago Fire's home record; away stats use Inter Miami's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.