Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew — MLS forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Chicago Fire
49%
Draw
24%
Columbus Crew
27%
Expected goals
1.86–1.36
Chicago Fire · Columbus Crew
Chicago Fire win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.7%), 2–1 (9.7%), 2–0 (7.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Chicago Fire win is 2–1 (9.7%).
Chicago Fire score at least twice in 56%; Columbus Crew in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Columbus Crew goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Chicago Fire goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 24% | 28% |
| Market reference | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 24% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 1.96 |
| Draw | 3.98 |
| Columbus Crew | 3.47 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Columbus Crew
| 22 Feb | A | vs Portland Timbers | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 8 Mar 26 | Columbus CrewvsChicago Fire | 0 – 0 |
Chicago Fire: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Chicago Fire (Home · 16 matches) | Columbus Crew (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 81.2% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.19 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Chicago Fire's home record; away stats use Columbus Crew's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.