Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Charlotte
42%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
Houston Dynamo
31%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Charlotte win. Expected goals 1.80–1.48 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (8.1%), 1–2 (7.9%). It finished 0–0.
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Charlotte
| 21 Feb | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 6–1 | W |
Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Charlotte (Home · 17 matches) | Houston Dynamo (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 47.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.6% | 47.1% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 35.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.12 | 3.06 |
Home stats use Charlotte's home record; away stats use Houston Dynamo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.