Charlotte vs Chicago Fire — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Charlotte
44%
top pick
Draw
24%
Chicago Fire
32%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Chicago Fire win 31.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Charlotte win. Expected goals 1.83–1.53 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.4%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (7.3%). It finished 0–1.
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Charlotte
| 21 Feb | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 6–1 | W |
Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Charlotte (Home · 17 matches) | Chicago Fire (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.6% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.12 | 3.53 |
Home stats use Charlotte's home record; away stats use Chicago Fire's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.