Charlotte vs Chicago Fire — MLS forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Charlotte
44%
Draw
23%
Chicago Fire
32%
Expected goals
1.84–1.57
Charlotte · Chicago Fire
Charlotte win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–2 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Charlotte win is 2–1 (9.0%).
Charlotte score at least twice in 55%; Chicago Fire in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
Chicago Fire goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Charlotte goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Market reference | 44% | 23% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 23% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 2.21 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.18 | 2.25 | 2.10 | 2.14 | 2.11 | 2.25 Betfair SB |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 3.82 | 3.32 | 4.00 Pinnacle |
| Chicago Fire | 2.88 | 3.00 | 2.88 | 2.95 | 2.70 | 2.88 | 2.89 | 2.66 | 3.00 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Charlotte
| 21 Feb | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 6–1 | W |
Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 26 | Chicago FirevsCharlotte | 2 – 1 |
Charlotte: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Charlotte (Home · 13 matches) | Chicago Fire (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 69.2% | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 69.2% | 76.9% |
| Clean sheet | 23.1% | 15.4% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.62 |
Home stats use Charlotte's home record; away stats use Chicago Fire's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.