CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — MLS forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
CF Montreal
21%
Draw
21%
Vancouver Whitecaps
58%
Expected goals
1.06–2.01
CF Montreal · Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.1%), 0–2 (9.3%), 1–2 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Vancouver Whitecaps win is 0–2 (9.4%).
CF Montreal score at least twice in 29%; Vancouver Whitecaps in 59%.
Scoreline distribution
Vancouver Whitecaps goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CF Montreal goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| Market reference | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| Metis Forecast | 21% | 21% | 58% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 4.44 |
| Draw | 4.36 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.68 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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CF Montreal
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Chicago Fire | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–4 | L |
Vancouver Whitecaps
| 22 Feb | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 6–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | CF Montreal (Home · 16 matches) | Vancouver Whitecaps (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 31.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.62 | 2.88 |
Home stats use CF Montreal's home record; away stats use Vancouver Whitecaps's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.