CF Montreal vs Nashville SC — MLS forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
CF Montreal
19%
Draw
21%
Nashville SC
60%
Expected goals
1.07–2.07
CF Montreal · Nashville SC
Nashville SC win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9.9%), 1–1 (9.9%), 0–2 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
CF Montreal score at least twice in 29%; Nashville SC in 61%.
Scoreline distribution
Nashville SC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CF Montreal goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Market reference | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| Metis Forecast | 19% | 21% | 60% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 4.87 |
| Draw | 4.38 |
| Nashville SC | 1.61 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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CF Montreal
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Chicago Fire | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–4 | L |
Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
| 23 Jul 26 | Nashville SCvsCF Montreal | 1 – 0 |
CF Montreal: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | CF Montreal (Home · 15 matches) | Nashville SC (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 53.3% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 46.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.00 |
Home stats use CF Montreal's home record; away stats use Nashville SC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.