CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
CF Montreal
35%
result
Draw
25%
FC Cincinnati
40%
top pick
Final score
3–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a CF Montreal win 35.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC Cincinnati win. Expected goals 1.48–1.66 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (8.1%). It finished 3–1.
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CF Montreal
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Chicago Fire | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–4 | L |
FC Cincinnati
| 21 Feb | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs New England Revolution | 1–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | CF Montreal (Home · 17 matches) | FC Cincinnati (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.1% | 76.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 76.5% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.59 | 4.18 |
Home stats use CF Montreal's home record; away stats use FC Cincinnati's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.