CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati — MLS forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
CF Montreal
37%
Draw
25%
FC Cincinnati
39%
Expected goals
1.53–1.63
CF Montreal · FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
CF Montreal score at least twice in 46%; FC Cincinnati in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
FC Cincinnati goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CF Montreal goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market reference | 37% | 25% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 25% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 2.66 | 2.55 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.57 | 2.32 | 2.66 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.76 | 3.45 | 4.00 Betfair SB |
| FC Cincinnati | 2.42 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.47 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.32 | 2.50 William Hill |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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CF Montreal
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Chicago Fire | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–4 | L |
FC Cincinnati
| 21 Feb | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs New England Revolution | 1–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 26 | FC CincinnativsCF Montreal | 4 – 3 |
CF Montreal: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | CF Montreal (Home · 13 matches) | FC Cincinnati (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 53.8% | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.2% | 76.9% |
| Clean sheet | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.54 | 4.38 |
Home stats use CF Montreal's home record; away stats use FC Cincinnati's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.