CF Montreal vs Charlotte — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
CF Montreal
41%
top pick
Draw
25%
Charlotte
35%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Charlotte win 34.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a CF Montreal win. Expected goals 1.53–1.43 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–2 (7.8%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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CF Montreal
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Chicago Fire | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–4 | L |
Charlotte
| 21 Feb | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 6–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | CF Montreal (Home · 16 matches) | Charlotte (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.62 | 3.62 |
Home stats use CF Montreal's home record; away stats use Charlotte's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.