Austin vs San Diego — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Austin
39%
Draw
26%
San Diego
35%
Expected goals
1.54–1.35
Austin · San Diego
Austin win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (9.0%), 2–1 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Austin score at least twice in 45%; San Diego in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
San Diego goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Austin goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market reference | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Austin | 2.44 |
| Draw | 3.65 |
| San Diego | 2.74 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.