Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 21.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Austin FC
42%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
San Jose Earthquakes
31%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Austin FC win. Expected goals 1.56–1.40 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (10.0%), 1–0 (8.0%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Austin FC (Home · 13 matches) | San Jose Earthquakes (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 69.2% | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Clean sheet | 30.8% | 23.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.62 | 3.15 |
Home stats use Austin FC's home record; away stats use San Jose Earthquakes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.