Austin FC vs San Diego FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 16.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Austin
39%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
San Diego
35%
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Austin win. Expected goals 1.54–1.35 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–2 (8.9%), 2–1 (7.7%). It finished 3–3.
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Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Austin FC (Home · 17 matches) | San Diego FC (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.76 | 3.12 |
Home stats use Austin FC's home record; away stats use San Diego FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.