Austin FC vs Portland Timbers — MLS forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Austin FC
32%
Draw
24%
Portland Timbers
45%
Expected goals
1.43–1.66
Austin FC · Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (10.1%), 0–1 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Portland Timbers win is 1–2 (10.1%).
Austin FC score at least twice in 41%; Portland Timbers in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Portland Timbers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Austin FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market reference | 32% | 24% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 24% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Austin FC | 3.13 |
| Draw | 3.99 |
| Portland Timbers | 2.09 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 30 Aug 26 | Portland TimbersvsAustin FC | 1 – 2 |
Austin FC: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Austin FC (Home · 16 matches) | Portland Timbers (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 56.2% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.81 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Austin FC's home record; away stats use Portland Timbers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.