Austin FC vs Colorado Rapids — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 21.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Austin FC
37%
top pick
Draw
28%
result
Colorado Rapids
34%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Austin FC win. Expected goals 1.44–1.36 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 2–1 (8.3%), 1–2 (8.1%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
Colorado Rapids
| 23 Feb | A | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs Portland Timbers | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs New York City | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Austin FC (Home · 16 matches) | Colorado Rapids (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 56.2% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.81 | 2.69 |
Home stats use Austin FC's home record; away stats use Colorado Rapids's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.