Atlanta Utd vs Orlando City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Atlanta Utd
45%
top pick
Draw
24%
Orlando City
32%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Orlando City win 31.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atlanta Utd win. Expected goals 1.78–1.57 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (10.2%), 1–2 (6.7%). It finished 2–3.
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Atlanta Utd
| 21 Feb | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs DC United | 0–0 | D |
Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atlanta Utd (Home · 17 matches) | Orlando City (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 82.4% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 82.4% | 88.2% |
| Clean sheet | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 3.47 | 5.06 |
Home stats use Atlanta Utd's home record; away stats use Orlando City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.