Atlanta Utd vs New York City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 187.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Atlanta Utd
34%
Draw
26%
result
New York City FC
40%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a New York City FC win. Expected goals 1.42–1.57 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.0%). It finished 2–2.
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Atlanta Utd
| 21 Feb | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs DC United | 0–0 | D |
New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atlanta Utd (Home · 17 matches) | New York City (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 82.4% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 82.4% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 5.9% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.47 | 2.35 |
Home stats use Atlanta Utd's home record; away stats use New York City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.