Atlanta Utd vs New York City — MLS forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Atlanta Utd
44%
Draw
26%
New York City
30%
Expected goals
1.47–1.31
Atlanta Utd · New York City
Atlanta Utd win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (10.8%), 1–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Atlanta Utd win is 2–1 (10.8%).
Atlanta Utd score at least twice in 44%; New York City in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
New York City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Atlanta Utd goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market reference | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 26% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Utd | 2.20 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.22 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 2.22 Betano |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.54 | 3.10 | 3.62 Pinnacle |
| New York City | 3.13 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.04 | 2.73 | 3.13 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Atlanta Utd
| 21 Feb | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs DC United | 0–0 | D |
New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atlanta Utd (Home · 12 matches) | New York City (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.17 | 2.17 |
Home stats use Atlanta Utd's home record; away stats use New York City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.