Atlanta Utd vs Chicago Fire — MLS forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Atlanta Utd
36%
Draw
25%
Chicago Fire
40%
Expected goals
1.55–1.67
Atlanta Utd · Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 1–2 (8.4%), 2–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 65% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Atlanta Utd score at least twice in 46%; Chicago Fire in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Chicago Fire goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Atlanta Utd goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Market reference | 36% | 25% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 25% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Utd | 2.68 |
| Draw | 3.81 |
| Chicago Fire | 2.41 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Atlanta Utd
| 21 Feb | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs DC United | 0–0 | D |
Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | Chicago FirevsAtlanta Utd | 1 – 0 |
Atlanta Utd: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Atlanta Utd (Home · 15 matches) | Chicago Fire (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.27 |
Home stats use Atlanta Utd's home record; away stats use Chicago Fire's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.