Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 9 September 2026

MLS·Wednesday, 9 September 2026·23:30

Atlanta United FC

2 – 3

Atlanta United FCExpected goalsOrlando City SC
1.68 xG1.39 xG

Metis pre-match forecast

Independent model — no market price

Frozen as published · 143.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.

Atlanta United FC

44%

top pick

Draw

25%

Orlando City SC

31%

result

Final score

2–3

Top pick missed

Metis gave an Orlando City SC win 30.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atlanta United FC win. Expected goals 1.68–1.39 against 2–3 actual.

Forecast against the result

Over 2.5 goals59%5 scored
Both teams score62%yes
Atlanta United FC clean sheet25%no
Orlando City SC clean sheet19%no
Atlanta United FC score 2+50%yes
Orlando City SC score 2+40%yes

How this forecast scored

Ranked probability score0.3345
1X2 Brier score0.7339
Probability on the result30.9%

Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.

Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (7.5%). It finished 2–3.

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Atlanta United FC

9 SeptHvs Orlando City SC2–3L
5 SeptAvs Inter Miami2–2D

Orlando City SC

9 SeptAvs Atlanta United FC3–2W

Head to head

No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.