St Etienne vs Nantes — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Etienne
58%
Draw
24%
Nantes
18%
Expected goals
1.80–0.91
St Etienne · Nantes
St Etienne win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–0 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St Etienne win is 1–0 (11.1%).
St Etienne score at least twice in 54%; Nantes in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Nantes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Etienne goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 25% | 18% |
| Market reference | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 24% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Etienne | 1.67 |
| Draw | 3.84 |
| Nantes | 4.98 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St Etienne
| 8 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Clermont | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
Nantes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Laval | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 3–3 | D |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Etienne (Home · 4 matches) | Nantes (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.25 |
Home stats use St Etienne's home record; away stats use Nantes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.