Sochaux vs Annecy — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sochaux
40%
Draw
29%
Annecy
30%
Expected goals
1.25–1.07
Sochaux · Annecy
Sochaux win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (12.0%), 0–0 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sochaux score at least twice in 36%; Annecy in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Annecy goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sochaux goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 30% | 33% |
| Market reference | 40% | 29% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 29% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sochaux | 2.46 |
| Draw | 3.22 |
| Annecy | 3.05 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sochaux
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Etienne | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Red Star | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Clermont | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Pau FC | 1–1 | D |
Annecy
| 8 Aug | A | vs Pau FC | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Reims | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Metz | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Grenoble | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sochaux (Home · 4 matches) | Annecy (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Sochaux's home record; away stats use Annecy's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.