Reims head into this late-season home fixture in steady if unspectacular form, with three wins and two draws from their last five. Sitting fourth, they will be pushing hard for a promotion playoff place, and home advantage has been a genuine asset — they have kept a clean sheet in over half their home games this season, conceding under a goal per game on average. Their home matches tend to be low-scoring affairs, with BTTS and Over 2.5 both well below the Ligue 2 average of 51% and 47% respectively.

Pau FC have been inconsistent on the road, winning two but also losing two of their last five away games. Their away record opens up more — Over 2.5 lands in nearly two thirds of their away fixtures, and they concede close to two goals per game on their travels. The one previous meeting ended in a Pau win, but the weight of current evidence favours Reims here. This looks like a contained, competitive home win rather than a goalfest.