Red Star vs Metz — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
RED Star FC 93
40%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Metz
32%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a RED Star FC 93 win 40.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a RED Star FC 93 win. Expected goals 1.32–1.10 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (10.3%), 0–0 (9.7%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Red Star
| 8 Aug | A | vs Nantes | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Sochaux | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Boulogne | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Reims | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Laval | 2–1 | W |
Metz
| 8 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Grenoble | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Laval | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Rodez | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Red Star (Home · 5 matches) | Metz (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Red Star's home record; away stats use Metz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.