PAU vs Nantes — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
PAU
31%
Draw
28%
Nantes
41%
Expected goals
1.20–1.24
PAU · Nantes
Nantes win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 0–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
PAU score at least twice in 33%; Nantes in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Nantes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAU goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market reference | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| PAU | 3.04 |
| Draw | 3.35 |
| Nantes | 2.35 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
No recent results.
Nantes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Laval | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 3–3 | D |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | PAU (Home · no matches) | Nantes (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.80 |
Home stats use PAU's home record; away stats use Nantes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.