Pau FC vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
PAU
41%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Sochaux
30%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a PAU win. Expected goals 1.25–1.09 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (12.1%), 0–0 (10.4%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Pau FC
| 8 Aug | H | vs Annecy | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Nancy | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Rodez | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Sochaux | 1–1 | D |
Sochaux
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Etienne | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Red Star | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Clermont | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Pau FC | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pau FC (Home · 6 matches) | Sochaux (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 1.83 |
Home stats use Pau FC's home record; away stats use Sochaux's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.