Montpellier vs Metz — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Montpellier
46%
Draw
31%
Metz
23%
Expected goals
1.50–0.98
Montpellier · Metz
Montpellier win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.6%), 1–0 (10.3%), 0–0 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Montpellier win is 1–0 (10.3%).
Montpellier score at least twice in 44%; Metz in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Metz goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 14.6 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Montpellier goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Market reference | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 31% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Montpellier | 2.09 |
| Draw | 3.09 |
| Metz | 3.98 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Montpellier
| 8 Aug | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Dunkerque | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Etienne | 1–3 | L |
Metz
| 8 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Grenoble | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Laval | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Rodez | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Montpellier (Home · 5 matches) | Metz (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Montpellier's home record; away stats use Metz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.