Metz vs St Etienne — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Metz
26%
Draw
26%
result
St Etienne
48%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Etienne win. Expected goals 1.09–1.57 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 0–1 (10.3%), 1–2 (9.5%). It finished 2–2.
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Metz
| 8 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Grenoble | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Laval | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Rodez | 4–1 | W |
St Etienne
| 8 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Clermont | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Metz (Home · 6 matches) | St Etienne (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Metz's home record; away stats use St Etienne's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.