Metz vs St Etienne — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Metz
26%
Draw
26%
St Etienne
48%
Expected goals
1.09–1.57
Metz · St Etienne
St Etienne win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 0–1 (10.3%), 1–2 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St Etienne win is 0–1 (10.3%).
Metz score at least twice in 30%; St Etienne in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
St Etienne goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Metz goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 25% | 27% | 47% |
| Market reference | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Metis Forecast | 26% | 26% | 48% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz | 3.61 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.54 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.54 | 3.02 | 3.61 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.67 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.54 | 3.55 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.54 | 3.09 | 3.67 Pinnacle |
| St Etienne | 2.01 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.99 | 2.07 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.97 | 2.02 | 2.07 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Metz
| 8 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Grenoble | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Laval | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Rodez | 4–1 | W |
St Etienne
| 8 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Clermont | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Metz (Home · 4 matches) | St Etienne (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Metz's home record; away stats use St Etienne's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.