Metz vs Rodez — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Metz
35%
result
Draw
28%
Rodez
37%
top pick
Final score
4–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Metz win 35.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rodez win. Expected goals 1.30–1.34 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 0–1 (8.6%), 1–0 (8.3%). It finished 4–1.
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Metz
| 8 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Grenoble | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Laval | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Rodez | 4–1 | W |
Rodez
| 8 Aug | H | vs Laval | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nantes | 5–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Pau FC | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Metz | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Metz (Home · 6 matches) | Rodez (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Metz's home record; away stats use Rodez's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.