Guingamp vs Nantes — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Guingamp
35%
Draw
28%
result
Nantes
37%
top pick
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nantes win. Expected goals 1.20–1.13 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.1%), 0–1 (12.2%), 0–0 (10.2%). It finished 3–3.
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Guingamp
| 8 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Reims | 2–2 | D |
Nantes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Laval | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 3–3 | D |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Guingamp (Home · 4 matches) | Nantes (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Guingamp's home record; away stats use Nantes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.