Guingamp head into this one in poor shape, taking just two points from their last five home outings, but they face a Bastia side that has been equally unconvincing on the road this season. The visitors sit 17th and their away record makes for grim reading — averaging just 0.7 goals per game on their travels, with only one win in their last five away from home. Defensively, neither side inspires much confidence, though Guingamp have kept clean sheets in over a third of their home games.

The goal data tells a clear story here. Bastia's away BTTS rate of 33% and O2.5 rate of just 20% sit well below the Ligue 2 averages of 51% and 47% respectively, and Guingamp's home matches follow a similarly low-scoring pattern. The single H2H meeting went Guingamp's way, and home advantage could prove decisive.

This looks like a tight, low-scoring affair, and the under markets appear well supported by the data.