Dunkerque vs Metz — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Dunkerque
34%
Draw
26%
Metz
40%
Expected goals
1.23–1.34
Dunkerque · Metz
Metz win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 0–1 (9.8%), 1–2 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Dunkerque score at least twice in 35%; Metz in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Metz goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Dunkerque goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Market reference | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 26% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 2.82 |
| Draw | 3.61 |
| Metz | 2.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Dunkerque
| 8 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Reims | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Clermont | 1–1 | D |
Metz
| 8 Aug | H | vs Guingamp | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Grenoble | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Laval | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Rodez | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dunkerque (Home · 5 matches) | Metz (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Dunkerque's home record; away stats use Metz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.