Dijon vs St Etienne — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Dijon
18%
Draw
24%
St Etienne
58%
pick · result
Final score
2–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a St Etienne win 57.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Etienne win. Expected goals 0.90–1.55 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (16.3%), 1–2 (12.8%), 1–1 (11.3%). It finished 2–3.
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Dijon
| 8 Aug | A | vs Montpellier | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Pau FC | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Clermont | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs St Etienne | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Boulogne | 1–1 | D |
St Etienne
| 8 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Clermont | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dijon (Home · 3 matches) | St Etienne (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Dijon's home record; away stats use St Etienne's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.