🇫🇷 Ligue 2·Monday, 31 August 2026·18:45
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Dijon | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Draw | 3.69 | 3.69 |
| St Etienne | 1.82 | 1.82 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketDijon
22%
Draw
25%
St Etienne
53%
Dijon 0.96 xGexpected goals1.44 xG St Etienne
St Etienne win 53% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (15.4%).
Dijon score at least twice in 24%; St Etienne in 44%.
0–1 15.4%1–1 11.9%1–2 11.9%0–2 9.8%0–0 8.8%1–0 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 15.4 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Dijon goals · columns = St Etienne goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Dijon clean sheet22%
St Etienne clean sheet39%
Dijon score 2+24%
St Etienne score 2+44%
Dijon score 3+8%
Model vs market
| Source | Dijon | Draw | St Etienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Metis Forecast | 22% | 25% | 53% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
No recent results.
St Etienne
| 9 Aug | A | vs Laval | 3–3 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 4–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Clermont | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Dijon (Home) | St Etienne (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 41.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 47.1% |
| Clean sheet | — | 35.3% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.35 |
Home stats use Dijon's home record; away stats use St Etienne's away record this season.