Dijon vs Rodez — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Dijon
49%
Draw
24%
Rodez
27%
Expected goals
1.62–1.18
Dijon · Rodez
Dijon win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (10.2%), 1–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Dijon win is 2–1 (10.2%).
Dijon score at least twice in 49%; Rodez in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Rodez goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Dijon goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market reference | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 24% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Dijon | 1.96 |
| Draw | 3.85 |
| Rodez | 3.46 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Dijon
| 8 Aug | A | vs Montpellier | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Pau FC | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Clermont | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs St Etienne | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Boulogne | 1–1 | D |
Rodez
| 8 Aug | H | vs Laval | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nantes | 5–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Pau FC | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Metz | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dijon (Home · 4 matches) | Rodez (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Dijon's home record; away stats use Rodez's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.