Boulogne vs Nantes — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Boulogne
26%
Draw
31%
Nantes
43%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Nantes win 43.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nantes win. Expected goals 0.98–1.32 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–1 (12.2%), 0–0 (11.2%). It finished 1–2.
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Boulogne
| 8 Aug | H | vs Nancy | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Montpellier | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
Nantes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Laval | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 3–3 | D |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Boulogne (Home · 5 matches) | Nantes (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.80 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Boulogne's home record; away stats use Nantes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.