Boulogne vs Nantes — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Boulogne
26%
Draw
31%
Nantes
43%
Expected goals
0.98–1.32
Boulogne · Nantes
Nantes win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–1 (12.2%), 0–0 (11.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Nantes win is 0–1 (12.2%).
Boulogne score at least twice in 26%; Nantes in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Nantes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 14.4 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Boulogne goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Market reference | 26% | 31% | 43% |
| Metis Forecast | 26% | 31% | 43% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boulogne | 3.69 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.44 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.44 | 2.99 | 3.69 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 3.30 1xBet |
| Nantes | 2.23 | 1.95 | 2.15 | 2.10 | 2.18 | 2.05 | 2.15 | 2.08 | 2.12 | 2.23 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Boulogne
| 8 Aug | H | vs Nancy | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Montpellier | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
Nantes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Laval | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 3–3 | D |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Boulogne (Home · 4 matches) | Nantes (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Boulogne's home record; away stats use Nantes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.