Boulogne vs Dijon — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Boulogne
32%
Draw
31%
result
Dijon
37%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 30.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Dijon win. Expected goals 1.16–1.26 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.5%), 0–0 (10.2%), 0–1 (10.1%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Boulogne
| 8 Aug | H | vs Nancy | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Montpellier | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
Dijon
| 8 Aug | A | vs Montpellier | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Pau FC | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Clermont | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs St Etienne | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Boulogne | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Boulogne (Home · 5 matches) | Dijon (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.80 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Boulogne's home record; away stats use Dijon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.