Boulogne head into this one in unconvincing form, collecting just two wins from their last five and sitting mid-table in twelfth. Their home record raises some concern — conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game at home and keeping clean sheets only 27% of the time, they have been porous at the back all season. Annecy arrive in considerably better shape, winning three of their last four away from home and holding a clean sheet in nearly a third of their road outings.

The goals data tells an interesting story. Boulogne's home BTTS rate of 53% sits close to the league average, but Annecy's away BTTS of just 38% drags against it, and their defensive solidity on the road points to a more contained affair than Boulogne's home fixtures typically produce.

The form gap between these sides is real, and Annecy look undervalued as the away side. This one feels tighter than the surface suggests, with the visitors the more structured outfit.