Troyes vs Strasbourg — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Troyes
33%
Draw
28%
Strasbourg
39%
pick · result
Final score
2–6
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Strasbourg win 39.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Strasbourg win. Expected goals 1.36–1.39 against 2–6 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–2 (9.7%), 0–1 (8.9%). It finished 2–6.
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Troyes
| 22 Aug | H | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–6 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Angers | 0–2 | L |
Strasbourg
| 21 Aug | A | vs Marseille | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Lens | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Troyes | 6–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Troyes (Home · 5 matches) | Strasbourg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Troyes's home record; away stats use Strasbourg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.