Toulouse head into this on a three-game losing run, and their home numbers tell a cautious story. A BTTS rate of just 33% and an Over 2.5 rate of 47% both sit well below the Ligue 1 averages of 49% and 52% respectively, suggesting their home games tend to be tight, low-scoring affairs. They have kept clean sheets in 40% of home matches, so Lyon will need to work for their chances.

Lyon arrive in decent shape, winning two of their last three away from home, and their away defensive record is solid with a 44% clean sheet rate. Their BTTS and Over 2.5 figures on the road are closer to the league norm, though Toulouse's stifling home environment could suppress that.

The limited H2H data slightly favours the hosts historically, but Lyon's top-four positioning and momentum make them the stronger side on paper. This looks tighter than the markets may suggest, with goals potentially at a premium.