🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Sunday, 30 August 2026·15:15
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Draw | 5.05 | 5.05 |
| Le Mans | 7.10 | 7.10 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketRennes
68%
Draw
19%
Le Mans
13%
Rennes 2.00 xGexpected goals0.89 xG Le Mans
Rennes win 68% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (13.1%).
Rennes score at least twice in 62%; Le Mans in 22%.
2–1 13.1%1–0 12.9%2–0 11.9%1–1 8.9%3–1 7.4%3–0 6.7%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Rennes goals · columns = Le Mans goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Rennes clean sheet41%
Le Mans clean sheet11%
Rennes score 2+62%
Le Mans score 2+22%
Rennes score 3+32%
Model vs market
| Source | Rennes | Draw | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 68% | 19% | 13% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Rennes
| 15 Aug | H | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Lorient | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Angers | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Lyon | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Nantes | 2–2 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Rennes (Home) | Le Mans (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | — |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | — |
| Avg goals | 2.76 | — |
Home stats use Rennes's home record; away stats use Le Mans's away record this season.