Rennes vs Le Mans — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rennes
68%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Le Mans
13%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rennes win 68.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rennes win. Expected goals 1.97–0.89 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.2%), 2–1 (13.1%), 2–0 (12.0%). It finished 3–2.
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Rennes
| 23 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Le Mans | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Angers | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 0–4 | L |
Le Mans
| 22 Aug | H | vs Brest | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Lens | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rennes (Home · 3 matches) | Le Mans (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Rennes's home record; away stats use Le Mans's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.